Markov Chains for Recurring Payment Recovery: Forecasting When History Matters
For subscription businesses — SaaS platforms, streaming services, membership programs — recurring revenue is the heartbeat of operations. Yet one persistent problem interrupts this rhythm: payment failures. Cards expire. Bank balances dip below the charge amount. Occasionally, a payment attempt is declined for reasons that are hard to pin down. Whatever the cause, failed payments create friction in the customer relationship and unpredictability in revenue. But predicting whether a failed payment will eventually recover isn’t straightforward. The probability of success doesn’t just depend on the most recent attempt — it depends on patterns. For example, someone who pays after a failure behaves differently from someone who fails twice in a row. That’s where Markov chains provide a structured way to model and forecast outcomes. What Exactly Is a Markov Chain? A Markov chain is a type of mathematical model used to describe systems that move between states over time, with each transit...